Import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to end 2025 5.6% below 2024 levels, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
The forecast reflects the impact of new tariffs on international trade, which began taking effect this week after months of announcements, postponements, and negotiations.
“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
He stated that tariffs are increasing consumer prices, reducing imports, and affecting the availability of goods, particularly for small businesses.
Gold called for binding trade agreements to lower tariffs, warning that tariffs will result in higher prices, less hiring, lower business investment, and slower economic growth.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the shifting tariff policy is causing confusion for importers, exporters, and consumers. He noted that some importers have pulled forward shipments ahead of tariff implementation, leading to expected declines in trade volumes by late September, with U.S. exporters facing unsold products due to counter tariffs.
U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 1.96 million TEU in June, up 0.7% from May but down 8.4% year over year. July is projected at 2.3 million TEU, up 17.3% from June and down 0.5% year over year, driven by pre-tariff imports. August is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, down 5% year over year; September at 1.83 million TEU, down 19.5%; October at 1.82 million TEU, down 18.9%; November at 1.71 million TEU, down 21.1%; and December at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.3%.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year. The projected total for 2025 is 24.1 million TEU, compared with 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
The National Retail Federation is a U.S.-based trade association representing retailers of all sizes and types, from department stores to independent shops. It engages in policy advocacy, industry research, and educational initiatives to support the retail sector.
Hackett Associates is a private consultancy and research firm specializing in maritime transport, logistics, and supply chain management. The company advises port authorities, shipping companies, and government bodies on trade patterns, infrastructure planning, and operational efficiency. It is known for producing industry data and market analysis related to global shipping and trade.