Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research has told clients the global shipbuilding industry is entering a multi-stage upcycle that could run through 2032, driven by emissions rules, replacement of aging vessels and steady trade growth.
Summaries of a Sept. 2 client note state that Goldman estimates 2025–2032 newbuild orders at 441 million CGT with an aggregate value of about $1.2 trillion, and that newbuild prices should remain elevated in 2025–2028 even if they ease roughly 12% from 2024 peaks.
The demand breakdown cited in those summaries attributes 48% of expected orders to fleet replacement, 26% to tightening decarbonization rules, and 26% to trade growth; Goldman highlights that fleet aging will accelerate after 2029 as many ships delivered in 2009–2012 reach 20 years and face regulatory and efficiency pressures to retire.
By 2035, scenario analysis in the note suggests the operating cost of conventional-fuel ships could exceed LNG or methanol alternatives due to carbon penalties, implying alternative-fuel ships need to reach about 50% of the fleet to meet compliance goals.
On capacity and pricing, Goldman’s bottom-up review of schedules and expansion plans at more than 400 shipyards projects deliveries rising from 41 million CGT in 2024 to 52 million in 2027 (+27%), while global shipyard capacity grows at roughly 2% in 2025–2027; the bank expects most additions to come from China via new yards and restarts, with Korean and Japanese yards more conservative.
The note’s policy scenarios say U.S. measures such as higher port service fees for China-built ships should have limited impact because only about 4% of the international fleet calling at U.S. ports is China-built or China-operated and U.S. imports/exports represent around 12% of global seaborne trade, allowing owners to redeploy vessels.
According to the same summaries, China’s shipbuilders—after a market-share dip earlier in 2025 due to tight capacity—are seen regaining share as capacity expands; orderbook coverage for Chinese yards is cited around 3.7 years versus roughly 3 years for Korean and Japanese peers, and China’s new-order share reportedly rebounded to about 69% in June–July 2025 from about 49% in January–May.
The note also argues that Chinese yards’ unit operating costs are about 50% lower than Korean and Japanese peers, helped by cheaper labor and roughly 40% lower steel prices since 2021. The earliest public mention identified in the provided text is a paywalled item carrying the precise “multi-stage upcycle through 2032” wording, followed within hours by detailed summaries in Asian financial media.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a U.S. financial holding company with global operations in investment banking, securities and investment management conducted through subsidiaries. Its Global Investment Research division produces sector and company analysis for institutional clients.