Container traffic at the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach will plunge by double digits this year, dragged down by the worldwide recession that is reducing demand for such products as automobiles, televisions and heavy machinery, according to a forecast to be released today.
The twin ports, the nation's largest, will handle 12.4 million so-called 20-foot-equivalent containers in 2009, down 13.5 percent compared with last year, says the report by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.
"It's very bad news because it's had a variety of impacts," said Jack Kyser, LAEDC's chief economist. "Most obviously, you have a huge number of cargo ships that have been laid up."
Among the effects will be a 9.3 percent loss in employment related to international trade in this area, the report predicts. That will comprise 46,000 job losses in the five-county region of Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino.
"That doesn't capture all the losses because the independent truck drivers are not reported by the state employment department," Kyser said.
The forecast for 2010 is brighter. The twin ports are expected to handle 12.6 million containers next year, up 1.8 percent over 2009, the report says.
That would end a three-year slide in the region's international trade activity. Port traffic peaked in 2006, with 15.8 million containers handled. "It's going to be a modest recovery," Kyser said.
At the Port of Los Angeles, container traffic in the first three months of this year was down about 17 percent compared with the same period a year ago, according to port statistics.
That was followed by a less painful drop of 9.8 percent for the 12-month period from March 2008 to March 2009.
"(For) the weakness of the year, a majority of that is from the deepest part of the recession, which we've already been through," said Michael Keenan, acting director of planning and research at the Port of Los Angeles.
Keenan noted that his port's decline was less dramatic than the average loss for West Coast container traffic, which was about 20 percent in the first quarter.
The Port of Los Angeles remained the nation's busiest in 2008, with 7.8 million handled containers, down 6 percent from 2007.
The Port of Long Beach ranked No. 2 last year with 6.49 million containers, down 11.3p ercent year-over-year.
The twin ports, the nation's largest, will handle 12.4 million so-called 20-foot-equivalent containers in 2009, down 13.5 percent compared with last year, says the report by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.
"It's very bad news because it's had a variety of impacts," said Jack Kyser, LAEDC's chief economist. "Most obviously, you have a huge number of cargo ships that have been laid up."
Among the effects will be a 9.3 percent loss in employment related to international trade in this area, the report predicts. That will comprise 46,000 job losses in the five-county region of Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino.
"That doesn't capture all the losses because the independent truck drivers are not reported by the state employment department," Kyser said.
The forecast for 2010 is brighter. The twin ports are expected to handle 12.6 million containers next year, up 1.8 percent over 2009, the report says.
That would end a three-year slide in the region's international trade activity. Port traffic peaked in 2006, with 15.8 million containers handled. "It's going to be a modest recovery," Kyser said.
At the Port of Los Angeles, container traffic in the first three months of this year was down about 17 percent compared with the same period a year ago, according to port statistics.
That was followed by a less painful drop of 9.8 percent for the 12-month period from March 2008 to March 2009.
"(For) the weakness of the year, a majority of that is from the deepest part of the recession, which we've already been through," said Michael Keenan, acting director of planning and research at the Port of Los Angeles.
Keenan noted that his port's decline was less dramatic than the average loss for West Coast container traffic, which was about 20 percent in the first quarter.
The Port of Los Angeles remained the nation's busiest in 2008, with 7.8 million handled containers, down 6 percent from 2007.
The Port of Long Beach ranked No. 2 last year with 6.49 million containers, down 11.3p ercent year-over-year.