MABUX: U.S. sanctions against Iran continue tightening bunker market
The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
Over the weekend, OPEC+ decided to take no further action to increase production even as Iran continues to lose supply. The inaction was met with fears of a supply crunch from the market, pushing oil indexes to its highest level in years.
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), also demonstrated firm upward trend in the period of Sep.20 - Sep.27:
380 HSFO - up from 451.57 to 463.43 USD/MT (+11.86)
180 HSFO - up from 495.79 to 507.86 USD/MT (+12.07)
MGO - up from 710.43 to 724.00 USD/MT (+13.57)
Commodity merchants Trafigura and Mercuria said that Brent could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and even above $100 in early 2019 as markets tighten once U.S. sanctions against Iran are implemented from November. Mercuria warned that as much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market. JP Morgan in turn expects Brent Crude to hit $85 a barrel over the next six months—with a spike to $90 likely. The investment bank now sees the U.S. sanctions cutting Iran’s oil exports by 1.5 million bpd due to the tougher U.S. policies on Iranian oil customers.
In the near-term, the U.S. seems to be counting on Saudi Arabia and Russia, along with American shale drillers, to offset the losses from Iran. Saudi Arabia has added about 400,000 bpd since May, while Russia has added about 300,000 bpd. Anyway, it seems the impact from the Iran sanctions could cause much higher oil and fuel prices than anticipated.
The meeting in Algiers on Sep.23 between OPEC and the non-OPEC partners ended with no decision to increase oil production beyond what was agreed to in June. The Joint OPEC-non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) expressed its satisfaction regarding the cur-rent oil market outlook, with an overall healthy balance between supply and demand. The group merely reaffirmed its goal of achieving 100 percent compliance with the production cut deal, noting that compliance stood at 129 percent in August.
Meantime, the European Union, China and Russia backed a mechanism to allow legitimate business to continue with Iran, a plan aimed at avoiding American sanctions and allowing inter-national trade to continue unhindered. The push for such a move reflects growing calls in countries such as France and Germany for the EU to adopt tools that will allow it to pursue its foreign-policy goals with less recourse to an unpredictable U.S. ally. In practical terms this will mean that EU member states will set up a legal entity to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran.
Iran’s oil tankers are starting to disappear from global satellite tracking systems with just under six weeks to go until U.S. sanctions are due to hit the country’s exports, making it harder to keep track of the nation’s sales. No signals have been received by shore stations or satellites from 10 of the Persian Gulf nation’s crude oil supertankers for at least a week. The most likely explanation is that the vessels’ transponders have been switched off, making it more difficult to track their movements. When they were last seen, the 10 vessels were holding around 13 million barrels of crude and condensate.
The weekend terrorist attack in Iran could be rather important to oil and fuel prices as well, as it could aggravate a rivalry in the most crucial oil-producing region in the world. An attack on a military parade in the city of Ahvaz in Iran killed 25 people, including 12 of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, who vowed a revenge for the terrorist attack.
U.S has also imposed new sanctions designed to significantly increase pressure on Russia’s economy, namely firms in the energy and metals sectors given their central role in providing tax revenues and employment in Russia. However, it would be difficult to convince the European Union to commit to similar measures. Production of natural gas in the EU is structurally declining. While U.S. LNG exports may increasingly flow to Europe, Russia will remain a key trade partner; liquefied natural gas is more expensive than piped gas. Europe’s import dependence is only going to grow, although the EU has been largely successful in limiting the risks posed by Russia’s attempts to politicize European gas markets.
China said it is difficult to proceed with trade talks with the United States and when the talks can restart would depend on the will of the U.S.. U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and retaliatory taxes by Beijing on $60 billion worth of U.S. products including liquefied natural gas (LNG) kicked in on Sep.24. Although the LNG tariff was only 10 percent (rather than the initially threatened 25 percent), it is still bad news for U.S. LNG producers.
Several rounds of Sino-U.S. talks in recent months have appeared to produce no breakthroughs, and new mid-level negotiations have been postponed after Beijing reportedly decided late last week not to send a delegation to Washington. It is increasingly likely that both sides will not resume negotiations for some time. The trade war renders additional pressure on fuel indexes.
OPEC estimates that the entry into effect of tighter emission rules for bunkering fuel will cause a temporary spike in crude oil demand as refineries increase their daily runs by around 400,000 bpd. This will reverse a global demand growth decline seen this year and in 2019. This year, demand growth is estimated at 1.6 million bpd, which will slow down to 1.4 million bpd in 2019 but then rebound to 1.7 million bpd in 2020 after the introduction of the new rules that will cap the sulfur content of bunker fuel at 0.5 percent from the current 3.5 percent. A per cartel, this will dampen demand for high-sulfur fuels, but it will increase demand for middle distillates and low-sulfur diesel and fuel oil. However, over the longer term, until 2040, oil demand will add 14.5 million bpd to 111.7 million bpd and the only contributors to this trend will be emerging economies.
We assume bunker prices will continue upward trend next week.
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
