MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, July 03

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) declined on July, 02:

380 HSFO - USD/MT 420.46 (-0.02)
180 HSFO - USD/MT 457.05 (-1.02)
MGO - USD/MT 659.88 (-2.16)

Meantime, world oil indexes also fell on July, 03.

Brent for September settlement declined by $2.66 to $62.40 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery fell by $2.84 to $56.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of 6.15 to WTI. Gasoil for July delivery decreased by $13.00.

Today indexes rise supported by extended output cuts by OPEC and its allies despite concerns that a slowing global economy could crimp demand.

OPEC+ agreed on July, 02 to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as members overcame differences to try to prop up prices. The extension, however, was widely expected and does little to avert the threat of a supply surplus. The OPEC+ agreement to extend oil output cuts for nine months should draw down oil inventories in the second half of this year, boosting oil prices. Some say, that keeping cuts through the end of 1Q 2020 aims to avoid putting oil into the market during a seasonal low for demand and refinery runs, as well as providing time to assess the impacts of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2020. IMO is introducing the rules on marine fuels would limit the sulfur content to 0.5 percent, down substantially from the current 3.5 percent, to curb shipping pollution.

An expected large draw in U.S. crude oil inventories also underpinned sentiment after a bigger-than-expected stocks fall in a private survey. The American Petroleum Institute (API) said that U.S. crude inventories fell by 5 million barrels last week, more than the expected decrease of 3 million barrels.

Still, signs of a global economic slowdown hitting oil demand growth. Barclays expects demand to grow at its slowest pace since 2011, gaining less than 1 million barrels per day year-on-year this year. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, lowered its long-term Brent price forecast on July,02 to $60 per barrel from $65 per barrel, and said the oil market is broadly balanced in 2019.

Still, in the short term, there are some offsetting factors. Seasonal demand strength will likely result in inventory draws in the U.S. over the next 2-3 months, which creates upside risk, IMO 2020 regulation should boost refinery crude runs in fourth-quarter this year and first-quarter of 2020, again supporting prices.

Crude prices were also capped by signs of a recovery in oil exports from Venezuela in June and growth in oil production in Argentina in May. Venezuela exported 1.1 million bpd of crude oil and refined oil products in June, up by 26 percent from May, thanks to higher shipments under oil-for-loan deals with China.

According to PDVSA’s documents, China accounted for 59 percent of Venezuela’s oil shipments last month, with India and Singapore a distant second and third, with 18 percent and 10 percent of Venezuela’s oil exports, respectively. Venezuela had to seriously reshuffle its crude oil and oil products export destinations earlier this year after the U.S. essentially prohibited Venezuelan oil imports to America. The United States imposed sweeping sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and PDVSA at the end of January to cut off a cash lifeline for Nicolas Maduro and his regime, after Washington recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the legitimate interim president of the Latin American country with the world’s largest crude oil reserves.

Bunker prices are expected to demonstrate downward changes today: 10-15 USD down for IFO, 10-13 USD down for MGO.