MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Oct 25

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated slight upward trend on Oct.24:

380 HSFO - USD/MT – 358.90 (+3.66)
180 HSFO - USD/MT – 399.89 (+2.91)
MGO - USD/MT – 666.65 (+0.94)

Meantime, world oil indexes also rose on Oct.24 amid a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories and the prospect of further action by OPEC and its allies to support the market.

Brent for December settlement added $0.50 to $61.67 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose by $0.26 to $56.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.44 to WTI. Gasoil for November gained $8.25.

Today morning oil indexes turned into slight downward evolution again.

Although trade talks over the first phase of a partial trade deal between the United States and China are progressing well, the market does not feel an agreement between the two economic powerhouses will have much of a positive impact on demand until the tariffs are lifted. Meantime, the market is currently being supported by the prospect of additional production cuts by OPEC and its allies. However, traders may not know for certain if this will happen until producers meet to review policy on December 5-6.

Goldman lowered its forecast for U.S. oil production growth to 0.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, down sharply from its 1 million bpd forecast previously. Goldman attributed the downward revision not just to a slowdown in drilling, but also to “updated longer-term decline rates to be consistent with play-to-date results,” which could be interpreted as shale wells are not performing as well as previously anticipated. In the short run, Goldman predicts oil prices are languishing below $60 per barrel, and little will change.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 1.7-million-barrel crude inventory drop last week, versus expectations for a build of 2.2 million barrels. The surprise draw was caused by a significant drop in crude imports. Despite being the world’s largest producer of light crude, the United States still buys significant volumes of heavy grade crude each week from Middle East and other producers.

A report from Germany reinforced the view of a global slowdown after the IHS Markit flash German manufacturing PMI inched up to 41.9 in October from September’s decade-worst 41.7, which is still a reading that shows the factory segment of the country’s economy in dire straits. Readings below 50 indicate contraction.

Sweden, the leader in the share of renewable energy use in the European Union (EU), targets to eliminate subsidies for onshore wind farms by the end of 2021, at around the same time as neighboring Norway. Sweden generates more than 54 percent of its electricity from renewable sources on a sustainable basis. As early as in 2012, the Scandinavian country reached its 2020 target to have 50 percent of energy use from renewables. The country is targeting 100 percent renewable electricity generation by 2040. Hydropower and bioenergy are the top sources of renewable energy in Sweden, but wind generation has soared over the past decade and a half.

Russia’s largest oil company Rosneft has already completed the switch away from the U.S. dollar to euros in its export contracts to minimize risks from potential new U.S. sanctions. Rosneft is the biggest oil exporter from Russia, selling around 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil. According to Rosneft, the Chinese yuan could become a much more important global currency in the future, because of Chinese economic growth. The share of the U.S. dollar in the global oil and oil products trade is around 90 percent currently,  but in ten years’ time, due to the Chinese economy, the yuan could raise its share from the current 2 to 5 percent.

We expect bunker prices may rise today slightly in a range of plus 2-7 USD.