China lacks sufficient capacity at its major container terminals beyond 2011, even if exports were severely impeded by a US-led economic slowdown, according to Ocean Shipping Consultants.
Despite massive terminal expansions, China urgently needs to speed up the pace of investment, said the consultancy’s port and shipping economist, Isabelle Griffith.
If China’s container trades remained unaffected by any global economic crisis, the capacity shortfall would remain “very tight” and reach “unsustainable levels” much earlier than 2011, she said.
Terminals barely met trade needs in 2007, running at 101 percent capacity. “Ports are just coping with the demand they’ve got,” Griffith said.
Because of the massive scales needed for financing projects, it is difficult to know if supply and demand match, Griffith concluded.
Terminals in the country’s east, including the world’s largest port of Shanghai, as well as Ningbo and Xiamen, were singled out as most at risk from a capacity crunch.
Shortfalls also loomed in the southeast including Shenzhen terminals at Yantian and Shekou, as well as Guangzhou and the Delta ports.
Shanghai has 17.1 million TEU capacity and plans to add a further 5.5m TEUs by 2009, based on data from Ocean Shipping Consultants. The ports of Shanghai and Ningbo handled a combined 8.8 million TEUs in 2006, based on data from MDS Transmodal.
MDS Transmodal’s Philip Sutcliffe said: “By 2011, China will need 85 million TEUs of port capacity and 600km of quays.”
Sutcliffe estimated that loaded container exports from China reached 34.4 million TEUs in 2006 and he agreed with Chinese government forecasters that container volumes would reach 180 million-190 million TEUs by 2015.
The general consensus was that Chinese container volumes would slow, growing by around 10 percent in 2008.
Volumes reached 134 million TEUs in 2007, representing 27 percent of global containers handled, according to the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.
The institute said that of the seven Chinese container ports among the world’s top 20, Shanghai handled 25.67 million TEUs, up nearly 18 percent, while Guaungzhou showed a 40 percent rise at 9.18 million TEUs.
Despite massive terminal expansions, China urgently needs to speed up the pace of investment, said the consultancy’s port and shipping economist, Isabelle Griffith.
If China’s container trades remained unaffected by any global economic crisis, the capacity shortfall would remain “very tight” and reach “unsustainable levels” much earlier than 2011, she said.
Terminals barely met trade needs in 2007, running at 101 percent capacity. “Ports are just coping with the demand they’ve got,” Griffith said.
Because of the massive scales needed for financing projects, it is difficult to know if supply and demand match, Griffith concluded.
Terminals in the country’s east, including the world’s largest port of Shanghai, as well as Ningbo and Xiamen, were singled out as most at risk from a capacity crunch.
Shortfalls also loomed in the southeast including Shenzhen terminals at Yantian and Shekou, as well as Guangzhou and the Delta ports.
Shanghai has 17.1 million TEU capacity and plans to add a further 5.5m TEUs by 2009, based on data from Ocean Shipping Consultants. The ports of Shanghai and Ningbo handled a combined 8.8 million TEUs in 2006, based on data from MDS Transmodal.
MDS Transmodal’s Philip Sutcliffe said: “By 2011, China will need 85 million TEUs of port capacity and 600km of quays.”
Sutcliffe estimated that loaded container exports from China reached 34.4 million TEUs in 2006 and he agreed with Chinese government forecasters that container volumes would reach 180 million-190 million TEUs by 2015.
The general consensus was that Chinese container volumes would slow, growing by around 10 percent in 2008.
Volumes reached 134 million TEUs in 2007, representing 27 percent of global containers handled, according to the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.
The institute said that of the seven Chinese container ports among the world’s top 20, Shanghai handled 25.67 million TEUs, up nearly 18 percent, while Guaungzhou showed a 40 percent rise at 9.18 million TEUs.