By the order of «Gazprom Neft Novy Port» LLC, KSRC specialists have developed the computer simulation model of offshore oil offloading system for Novoportovskoye oil and gas condensate field located in Yamal peninsula in harsh environment of polar region, KSRC says.
The most of the year the ships are operating in 500m ice channel in shorefast ice of Ob’ Bay over 2 m in thickness. Some months a year the open water area of Kara Sea is almost completely covered with drifting ice.
The purpose of the investigation was to estimate the cost of oil shipping under various ice conditions pursuant to the delivery expansion plan. Moreover, it is necessary to define one of the key parameters i.e. the capacity of shore-based storage facility to be sufficient for usage in ice conditions of different severity. Any storage «overwhelming» should be eliminated.
Simulation modelling technique was applied in order to complete this task considering the non-stationary nature of ice. The software developed by the KSRC experts incorporates ship calculation modules, GIS environment and logistic simulation model developed using AnyLogic under common interface. Simulation model reproduces the dynamics of shore-based storage loading, logics of ships motion and interaction in «probabilistic» weather conditions taking into account ice channel freezing.
«We were among the very first in Russia to apply advanced agent-based simulation modelling for investigation of Arctic fleet operation capabilities, — said Oleg Tarovik, KSRC research fellow. — Obviously, one can resolve some tasks using the other types of models or empirical estimate, however some specific data can be obtained using theagent-based simulation modelling only. This approach makes it possible not only to consider time dependent or probability factors but also to assume the logics of ships interaction. For instance, one can correctly estimate theshore-based storage capacity only using simulation model».
Investigation of transportation system for Novoportovskoye field lasted about six months. Based on the modelling results in was found that depending on the severity of ice conditions the number of ice channels ranges from 4 to 7. In the course of study it was also defined that for low-duty, moderate- and severe ice conditions the 200 000 m3shore-based storage is sufficient at 6 mln ton cargo traffic. The icebreaker assistance is required only in harsh winter as in low- and moderate-duty ice conditions the tankers can operate independently.
Apart from «Novy Port» project the KSRC has completed the others aimed to investigate ships and icebreakers operation using simulation modelling technique. «Technical decisions taken at the early design stages define the further economic efficiency of the project, — explained Oleg Tarovik. — The decisions of this kind are hard to be changed. For this reason the use of simulation modelling method is completely justified, especially applied to complex and non-standard transportation systems. Novoportovskoye field project has demonstrated it in full».