MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Aug10

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and irregular on Aug.07:

380 HSFO: USD/MT 305.87 (+0.22)
VLSFO: USD/MT 363.00 (0.00)
MGO: USD/MT 441.44  (-2.44)

Meantime, world oil indexes decreased on Aug.07 on worries that fuel demand growth will drop amid a resurgence of coronavirus cases and as talks have stalled in the United States on a new stimulus deal.

Brent for October settlement decreased by $0.69 to $44.40 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for September delivery fell by $0.73 to $41.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $3.18 to WTI. Gasoil for August delivery lost $5.50 – $369.00.

This morning, global oil indexes have turned into slight upward evolution.

The resurgence of infections remains a key issue for the market and demand outlook. Tallies show cases in the United States are rising in a number of states. India reported on Aug.07 a record daily jump in infections.

OPEC oil output rose by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in July as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members ended their voluntary extra curbs on top of the OPEC-led deal, and other members made limited progress on compliance. Saudi Arabia had agreed to cut output by 2.5 million bpd under the OPEC+ deal. Iraq agreed to cut output by 1.06 million bpd under the deal. It is expected that the country will make an additional cut in its oil production of about 400,000 barrels per day in August to compensate for its overproduction over the past period under the OPEC+ supply reduction pact.

The U.S. sent in June its first crude oil shipment to Saudi Arabia (550,000 barrels) since the ban on crude export was lifted in 2015, which was also the first shipment since one very small shipment back in 2002. The cargo to Saudi Arabia in June may have been part of a bigger shipment headed for another export destination. Saudi Arabia, for its part, has been one of the largest suppliers of crude oil to the United States, and the third-largest supplier of petroleum in 2019 behind Canada and Mexico.

U.S. shale drillers are still not ready to return to their default state of perpetual growth. Oil is too cheap for that, so they are staying in survival mode, maintaining production with no plans to start boosting it anytime soon. Layoffs, capex cuts, and bankruptcies are on the agenda now, at least until WTI rises to at minimum $50, according to some industry executives who see that price level as high enough to restart drilling new wells. Even then, however, efforts will focus on development, that is, exploiting already proven reserves, while spending on new exploration, meaning, a substantial increase in new production, will have to wait. This reality may force a rethinking of the whole shale business model.

It is expected that demand for offshore rigs will slump this year as a result of the pandemic and the low oil prices that are forcing offshore operators to delay drilling activities, but the offshore rig industry is set for a comeback in 2022. The drillship market should expect pent-up demand in 2022, with demand rising from this year’s levels through 2021 and 2022. Global demand for drillships is forecast to average 73 units over 2022, up from 66 units for 2021 and 59 units through 2020. Most of the drillship demand will be concentrated in South America and West Africa. In South America, Brazil will be a major hotspot for drillship demand in 2022, alongside Guyana and Suriname. Drillship demand in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, however, is expected to see demand next year down from 17 to 14 units, as some operators wait a bit longer for market conditions to stabilize before awarding new work.

The world’s consumption of natural gas is set to decline by 4 percent this year, but global demand will return to growth after the pandemic, thanks to low natural gas prices and stricter environmental policies. The Global Gas Report 2020 says that the trend of increased natural gas demand due to environmental concerns, which was already underway before the pandemic, will continue after COVID-19 is under control.  The International Energy Agency (IEA) also sees global natural gas demand dropping by 4 percent in 2020, which would be the largest demand shock for gas markets in recorded history, with consumption of natural gas expected to drop by twice the amount it did after the 2008 financial crisis. Meantime, Global LNG imports could return to their 2019 level quickly, as soon as in 2021, depending on the persistence and longevity of the pandemic.

The combined oil and gas rig count in the U.S. fell last week by 4, to 247. The total oil and gas rigs are down by 687 compared to this time last year. The number of oil rigs slipped for the week by 4 rigs, bringing the total to 176, compared to the 764 active oil rigs this time last year.  Two of those four rigs lost this week were in the Permian Basin. Meantime, the EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States fell for the week ending July 31—the last week for which there is data, at 11 million barrels of oil per day. Oil production in the United States is 2.1 million bpd less than its all-time high reached earlier this year.

We expect IFO bunker prices may go downward by 3-5 USD today, while MGO prices – to lose 5-9 USD.