MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 38, 2021

The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

On a Week 38, the MABUX World Bunker Index continued moderate growth. The 380 HSFO Index rose by 2.72 USD: from 468.76 USD / MT to 471.48 USD / MT, the VLSFO Index increased by 2.47 USD: from 566.38 USD / MT to 568.85 USD / MT, while the MGO Index added 8.46 USD (from 659.15 USD / MT up to 667.61 USD / MT).

The MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index, calculated as the average price of LNG as a marine fuel in the ARA region, continued its moderate decline over the Week 38 from 1058.30 USD / MT to 1051.49 USD / MT (minus 6.81 USD). At the same time, LNG Bunker Index decreased by 4.93 USD compared to the previous week (1054.51 USD / MT versus 1059.43 USD / MT). The average MGO LS price in Rotterdam increased by 14.67 USD / MT over the same period, and the average price difference between bunker LNG and MGO LS in Rotterdam decreased by 19.60 USD, approaching 450 USD point: (452.51 USD / MT versus 472.10 USD / MT last week). Prices for LNG as a bunker fuel in the ARA region continue to rise supported by possible Nord Stream 2 delay and limited pipeline gas supplies from Russia, as Gazprom has not booked additional supply capacity through Ukraine in October. The prices could be seen even higher to compete with Asian gas prices in order to attract LNG cargoes to Europe. LNG bunker price indices are available in the LNG Bunkering section on www.mabux.com.

The average weekly Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - rose slightly during the week to $ 96.79 (versus $ 95.00 last week). At the same time, the average value of SS Spread in Rotterdam keeps stable position over the $ 100 mark: $ 112.83 versus. $ 109.83 last week (plus $ 3.00). The average weekly SS Spread in Singapore has also not changed significantly and stays below the $ 100 mark: $ 85.33 versus $ 83.67 last week (plus $ 1.66). More information is available in the Differentials section of www.mabux.com.

Correlation of MABUX MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX Digital Benchmark) in the four global largest hubs over the past week showed that 380 HSFO fuel grade was overvalued in all selected ports, except Houston, where the Index recorded an underpricing by $ 7 (versus plus $ 7 a week earlier). In other ports, the 380 HSFO remained overcharged by $ 3 in Rotterdam, by $ 40 in Singapore and by $ 46 in Fujairah.

VLSFO fuel grade, according to the MABUX MBP / DBP Index, was also overpriced at all ports with minimum margins in Houston (plus $ 1) and Rotterdam (plus $ 7). In Singapore and Fujairah, VLSFO overcharge levels reached plus $ 10 and plus $ 9, respectively.

MGO LS remains the only fuel which was underestimated by the MABUX MBP / DBP Index at all selected ports: the minimum margin in Houston (minus $ 7), the maximum – in Singapore (minus $ 36).

According a new ABS study，a new-build, dual-fuel gas carrier vessel generates lower CO2 emissions over the course of its operational life than an existing gas carrier converted to dual-fuel operations. ABS compared potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between a new-build, dual-fuel very large gas carrier (VLGC) and conversion of two AGH VLGCs over 20- and 25-year life cycles, including decommissioning. The findings suggest conversion increases emission intensity by between 13.7% and 32.6% over new construction.

Source: www.mabux.com