“The ban on Russian oil imports introduced by the EU under the sixth package of sanctions can be the most pressing factor. The restrictions coming into effect in 8 months can affect over 160 million tonnes of liquid bulk cargo (20% of all Russian seaports’ throughput). However, a considerable part of those flows can be directed to other regions – Asia and Africa. The reduction of pipeline oil exports in 2022-24 (due to a complete rejection of Russian oil expected from the EU) can contribute to maritime transportation. Another factor of support can be low bunker fuel prices expected due to the excess offer in the internal market and tax regulations specifics,” the expert believes.
Sergey Kondratyev also emphasized that the beginning of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine entailed the exit of large international carriers from Russia and the approval of the fifth package of sanctions by the EU (covering trucking companies and ship owners) made it virtually impossible to retain former transport schemes focused on cargo transshipment in Europe. Imports to Russia sank by over 80%, exports from the country – by 20%.
“It can take several months to change logistics, test and adjust new payment schemes, etc. The changes are already underway with the growing transit via Turkey, Kazakhstan and direct deliveries from China. The most affected will be the North-West ports which had long held leadership in terms of throughput and cargo flow dynamics with their focus on Europe. South ports are in a more favorable situation due to a diversified system of cargo handling and a potential growth of traffic via Turkey,” says Sergey Kondratyev.
The expert will tell more at the 15th All-Russian Forum "Current State and Prospects of Development of the Russian Bunkering Services Market" (23-24 June 2022, Saint-Petersburg). Strategic Partner of the Forum is PAO Sberbank.