BIMCO reported that average container freight rates for Chinese exports decreased by 28% since the beginning of the year, marking the most significant first-quarter decline in twenty years.
The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), based on data from twenty-three liner operators across ten major ports, fell from 1,548 at the start of 2025 to 1,112 by the end of the first quarter.
This 28% reduction was driven by a notable drop in spot freight rates, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which tracks spot rates for Shanghai exports, declining by 46%—the largest first-quarter fall since its inception in late 2009.
“Since 2006, the CCFI has on average only fallen 2% during the first quarter and has only declined more than 10% four times. The second worst year was 2023 when average rates fell 24% between the start and end of the first quarter,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
Despite a 20% year-on-year increase in export market volumes from East and Southeast Asia in January, and 10-12% of fleet capacity absorbed by rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, rates continued to decline.
Among east-west trades, Europe and Mediterranean routes saw reductions of 33% and 32%, respectively. North-south trades experienced larger drops, with rates to South Africa, Australia/New Zealand, South America, and West Africa falling by 40%, 38%, 35%, and 26%, respectively.
The trade between China and Japan was the only route where average rates remained stable. Average rates at the end of the first quarter were 8% lower than a year prior but 39% higher than in 2019.
The report noted increased trade uncertainty due to the Trump administration’s focus on raising US import tariffs, potentially impacting global trade and economic growth.
“As the container ship fleet’s capacity is expected to grow 5.4% during 2025, freight rates can be expected to remain lower than in 2024. Should volume growth falter and ships return to normal routings in the Red Sea area, 2019 levels may soon be within sight,” Rasmussen added.
BIMCO (Baltic and International Maritime Council), founded in 1905 and headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark, is a global shipping association representing shipowners, operators, managers, brokers, and agents. It serves over 2,000 members in more than 130 countries, covering approximately 65% of the world’s merchant fleet by tonnage. BIMCO provides industry analysis, standard contracts, and advocacy on regulatory matters, with a focus on promoting fair trade practices and safety standards in maritime transport.