US import cargo volume through big American container ports is expected to be 25 per cent higher year on year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
"This is a dramatic turnaround over what we've seen during the past two years," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold. "Increases in import volumes don't correspond directly with dollar volumes in sales, so caution has to be exercised when looking at these numbers. But retailers are clearly expecting to move more merchandise this year."
US ports handled 1.09 million TEU in December, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was unchanged from November but up 2.6 per cent from December 2008 to break a 28-month streak during which monthly totals was lower than the same month the year before.
January was estimated at 1.19 million TEU, a 17 per cent increase over January 2009, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, up 30 per cent from the previous year. March is forecast at 1.18 million TEU, up 23 per cent as retailers begin to stock up for spring and summer, April at 1.25 million TEU, up 27 per cent, May at 1.3 million TEU, up 26 per cent, and June at 1.38 million TEU, up 36 per cent.
Those monthly numbers would put the first half of 2010 at 7.4 million TEU, up 25 per cent from last year's 5.9 million TEU.
With numbers from December now final, 2009 ended with a total volume of 12.7 million TEU, down 17 per cent from 2008's 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 12.5 million TEU reported in 2003.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett disagreed with economists who fear that the economy is in the middle of a W-shaped recovery where another dip could follow current signs of an upturn.
"This forecast assumes that we are not in a double-dip recession and that a recovery is underway," Mr Hackett said. "Although 2009 saw decreased import activity levels, the forecast for 2010 points towards growth."
Global Port Tracker covers the US ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the east coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971.
"This is a dramatic turnaround over what we've seen during the past two years," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold. "Increases in import volumes don't correspond directly with dollar volumes in sales, so caution has to be exercised when looking at these numbers. But retailers are clearly expecting to move more merchandise this year."
US ports handled 1.09 million TEU in December, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was unchanged from November but up 2.6 per cent from December 2008 to break a 28-month streak during which monthly totals was lower than the same month the year before.
January was estimated at 1.19 million TEU, a 17 per cent increase over January 2009, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, up 30 per cent from the previous year. March is forecast at 1.18 million TEU, up 23 per cent as retailers begin to stock up for spring and summer, April at 1.25 million TEU, up 27 per cent, May at 1.3 million TEU, up 26 per cent, and June at 1.38 million TEU, up 36 per cent.
Those monthly numbers would put the first half of 2010 at 7.4 million TEU, up 25 per cent from last year's 5.9 million TEU.
With numbers from December now final, 2009 ended with a total volume of 12.7 million TEU, down 17 per cent from 2008's 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 12.5 million TEU reported in 2003.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett disagreed with economists who fear that the economy is in the middle of a W-shaped recovery where another dip could follow current signs of an upturn.
"This forecast assumes that we are not in a double-dip recession and that a recovery is underway," Mr Hackett said. "Although 2009 saw decreased import activity levels, the forecast for 2010 points towards growth."
Global Port Tracker covers the US ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the east coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971.