Having already fallen dramatically from their highs containership charter rates face another three years of contraction predicts broker Howe Robinson.
The broker believes that declining containership charter rates in 2006 will continue for another three years from 2007 – 2009.
The boxship fleet will grow at 16% this year; 14.5% in 2007; 12.5% in 2008; and 11.5% in 2009.
The broker says that for every percentage point of oversupply there will be a 10% drop in charter rates, and 2006 has seen Howe Robinson’s container charter rate index fall 31% from 1844 to 1260 from January to September, with the year as whole expected to witness a 32% drop.
A very similar to 2006 is forecast next year with an oversupply of 270,000 teu or 3% based on a GDP growth of 3.2%, world trade growing at 7.5% and containerisation at 10.5%. The result would be that the boxship charter rate index would fall from 1,260 to 1,000 points.
On a positive note though Mr Dowell said that demand only needed to exceed forecast levels by 2% year for there to be a different picture.
The broker believes that declining containership charter rates in 2006 will continue for another three years from 2007 – 2009.
The boxship fleet will grow at 16% this year; 14.5% in 2007; 12.5% in 2008; and 11.5% in 2009.
The broker says that for every percentage point of oversupply there will be a 10% drop in charter rates, and 2006 has seen Howe Robinson’s container charter rate index fall 31% from 1844 to 1260 from January to September, with the year as whole expected to witness a 32% drop.
A very similar to 2006 is forecast next year with an oversupply of 270,000 teu or 3% based on a GDP growth of 3.2%, world trade growing at 7.5% and containerisation at 10.5%. The result would be that the boxship charter rate index would fall from 1,260 to 1,000 points.
On a positive note though Mr Dowell said that demand only needed to exceed forecast levels by 2% year for there to be a different picture.