TRANSNET Port Terminals' forecast that commodities will pick up within two years appears to be out of alignment with what some of its customers expect.
But other companies and economists agree with the state-owned enterprise.
In the past year Richards Bay port volumes and revenues have tumbled by a third after the global financial crisis hit demand for commodities.
Wally Luyt, the chief executive of Shincel and Bay Fibre, which export woodchips, said usually the companies shipped just more than 1.2 million tons, but they expected that to be closer to 800 000 tons this year.
"There is nothing on the table that gives me confidence that the market will turn around any time soon … not for the next three years," said Luyt.
"From a woodchip point of view, we are dependent on the Japanese market doing well. In the first quarter it had its biggest contraction in years when it was down by 4 percent."
The two export businesses were restructuring and reducing shifts from four to one. They had also approached unions to discuss retrenchment.
In contrast Bradley Doig, Petmin's chief operating officer, said the anthracite exporter expected a turnaround as early as the second half of next year. Petmin plans to lift its annual volumes at Richards Bay from 600 000 tons to 1.4 million tons.
Adenaan Hardien, the chief economist at Cadiz African Harvest Asset Management, said the parastatal's forecast was a realistic time frame. Commodity prices had stabilised recently.
Before the financial crisis commodities had performed strongly "but South Africa did not benefit as much as it should have due to capacity constraints", Hardien said.
Solly Letsoalo, the chief operating officer at Transnet Port Terminals, said this week it would continue its R800 million repair programme at Richards Bay as it was necessary for the port's survival and because the company was confident of a recovery within two years.
Its medium-term forecast showed current volumes would almost double within five years. The company expected volumes to increase to 21 million tons a year by 2014 from the current 13 million tons.
ArcelorMittal South Africa, which imports coal through the port, said volumes fell below 200 000 tons in the first quarter. It did not expect volumes to change much because the steel market had been hit hard.
Sven Lunsche, the spokesman for ArcelorMittal SA, said the company expected to import less than 1 million tons of coal this year compared with a normal 1.6 million tons. Steel exports through Richards Bay were down dramatically from 50 000 tons. The firm hoped some stability would return to the market by end of the year.