The Bunker Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
At the end of the 11th week, the global bunker indices MABUX did not have a stable trend and changed in different directions. The 380 HSFO index rose by 6.23 USD: from 495.53 USD/MT last week to 501.76 USD/MT, once again exceeding the 500 USD mark. The VLSFO index continued to decline: minus 1.80 USD (580.05 USD/MT against 581.85 USD/MT last week), still below the 600 USD mark. The MGO index fell by another 6.20 USD (from 771.02 USD/MT last week to 764.82 USD/MT). At the time of writing, a minor upward correction was observed on the market.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—continued its downward trend, dropping by $8.03 (from $86.32 last week to $78.29). This decline pushed the spread below the $80.00 mark while remaining well under the $100.00 breakeven threshold. The weekly average of the index also fell by $4.72. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread decreased by another $5.00, falling from $63.00 last week to $58.00, with the weekly average in the port losing $9.83. Similarly, in Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference continued to shrink, dropping by $17.00 from $45.00 last week to $28.00. Notably, during the week, the spread in Singapore narrowed further to $23.00, while the weekly average in the port declined by $12.83. The persistent reduction in the SS Spread significantly diminishes the profitability and cost-effectiveness of the 380 HSFO + Scrubber combination, making conventional VLSFO a more attractive option. This trend is particularly relevant in Southern Europe, where the 0.1% sulfur cap will take effect on May 1 as part of the Mediterranean SECA declaration. For further details, visit the Differentials section on www.mabux.com.
Higher-than-average storage withdrawals have depleted gas supplies in both the U.S. and Europe, raising concerns about shortages. With inventories below normal levels, replenishment could take longer, especially if cold temperatures persist or production remains constrained. In the near term, strong demand, limited supply, and geopolitical risks are likely to keep natural gas prices elevated. Weather forecasts will drive short-term price movements, while global LNG logistics, trading patterns, and geopolitical events will shape long-term market dynamics.
As of March 11, European regional storage facilities were 35.88% full, reflecting a decrease of 1.75% from the previous week and a significant drop of 35.45% since the beginning of the year. The withdrawal of gas from storage continues. At the end of the 11th week, the European gas benchmark TTF saw a slight decline of 0.754 euro/MWh, falling from 43.464 euro/MWh last week to 42.710 euro/MWh. However, signs of a renewed upward trend have begun to emerge.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) dropped by USD 66 over the past week, reaching USD 833/MT on March 10. Meanwhile, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel also narrowed, with MGO LS priced at USD 732/MT—resulting in a difference of USD 71 in favor of MGO LS, down from USD 124 the previous week. For more details, visit the LNG Bunkering section on www.mabux.com.
At the end of the 11th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which measures the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (DBP)—continued to fluctuate across the four major global hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.
• 380 HSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore remained in the overvalued zone, with the average weekly MDI increasing by 4 and 11 points, respectively. In contrast, Fujairah and Houston were undervalued, though their undervaluation levels decreased by 11 and 1 point, respectively. Notably, the MDI in Rotterdam remained at the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
• VLSFO segment: Rotterdam was the only overvalued port in this segment, with its average MDI decreasing by 4 points. Meanwhile, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued, with their weekly average MDI narrowing by 1, 1, and 5 points, respectively.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam returned to the undervaluation zone, bringing all four ports into this category. The weekly average MDI increased by 8 points in Rotterdam but declined by 6 points in Singapore, 10 points in Fujairah, and 6 points in Houston. The Rotterdam index remains near the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
The overall balance between overvalued and undervalued ports has once again shifted towards undervaluation. We expect this trend to persist in the coming week.
More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark is available in the Digital Bunker Prices section of www.mabux.com.
The recently published FOBAS Q2 2025 Fuel Quality Report highlights concerns over VLSFO off-spec samples due to high sulphur content. According to the report, nearly 2.5% of the tested VLSFO samples—particularly RMG380—had sulphur levels between 0.50% and 0.53%. While these levels remain technically compliant with MARPOL Annex VI regulations, given testing tolerances, they continue to create uncertainty for shipping companies. Additionally, 0.8% of VLSFO samples exceeded the 0.53% limit. The report also underscores the ongoing issue of sedimentary elements in fuel, identifying Houston and Antwerp as high-risk areas for asphaltene instability. FOBAS notes the significant growth in biofuels, driven by regulatory incentives and industry decarbonisation commitments. The use of FAME blends of RF class is increasing in key bunkering hubs such as Singapore, Algeciras, and the ARA region. While no major issues have been reported with biofuels so far, FOBAS cautions that concerns persist regarding fuel component quality, production processes, and supply chain integrity. Finally, the report highlights the potential impact of the upcoming Mediterranean SECA on bunkering logistics and fuel quality. Vessels operating in the Mediterranean will be required to use fuel with a sulphur content of 0.10% or lower unless scrubbers are installed. This regulation is expected to affect fuel availability and pricing in key Mediterranean ports.
We believe the downtrend in the global bunker market remains intact, and a moderate decline in bunker fuel prices is expected to continue next week.
By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX