IEA predicts global oil demand will grow from 84M bpd to 116M bpd by 2030

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released World Energy Outlook 2006, predicting global oil demand will grow from 84M bpd to 116M bpd by 2030. Barring new government measures, the EIA estimates that total global energy demand will increase 53% between now and 2030, with developing countries, led by China and India, accounting for 70% of that increase. “The realities of the energy market have become harsher and the relative competitive position of fuels has changed,” said the IEA in its first major update of long-term projections since 2004, noting that oil and gas prices have tripled and quadrupled since 2002. The IEA explained that “coal is now cheaper than natural gas for electricity generation, while nuclear power may be cheaper than both coal and gas”. Looking forward, most of the global oil supply increase will be focused on a small number of major OPEC producers, with non-OPEC conventional crude output to peak “by the middle of the next decade”, predicted the IEA. The agency recommends “strong policy action” by world governments and greater use of nuclear power. Biofuels could account for 4-7% of road transport needs by 2030, but “rising food demand, which competes with biofuels for arable land, will constrain long-term potential for biofuel production using current technology,” said the IEA.